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A Changed Region After September 11, 2001, the Bush administration launched an ambitious policy to forge a new Middle East, with intervention in Iraq as the driver of the transformation. "The establi

This analysis reflects on the changes in the Middle East following the events of September 11, 2001, highlighting the ambitious policies of the Bush administration aimed at establishing democracy and

The Reality of the New Middle East The first step toward the formulation of a new policy is to understand the realities of the new Middle East as it is now. The three clusters of countries — Iran–Ira

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuclear proliferation and sectarianism. The U.S. faces not jus

albeit it is still inappropriate to talk about an axis. Iraq's problems, and possible solutions, are so closely intertwined with Iran that it is no longer possible to discuss solutions for Iraq withou

Iraq's current situation as a failed state is deeply intertwined with Iran's influence. The U.S. invasion has led to a power struggle, making it impossible for Iraq to function effectively. Political

the United States during 2007 has helped reduce violence, there has not been any corresponding political progress. Different Iraqi political figures and forces have competing and often changing vision

Post-2007, the United States achieved a reduction in violence in Iraq, yet significant political progress remains elusive. Iraqi political factions hold varying visions for the nation's future, with t

It is out of this reality of conflicting and changing political agendas that a political agreement would have to be forged to transform Iraq once again from a failed state into a functioning one. It w

This text examines the complex realities of Iraq's political environment following the fall of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent rise of Iran as a powerful regional entity. It highlights the challenge

but set aside its criticism when this was in its interest. It was never in agreement with the United States and sought other allies, but never became so antagonistic as to provoke a strong American re

The text explores the evolving relationship between Syria and the United States, highlighting key moments such as the leadership transition from Hafez al-Assad to Bashar al-Assad, the impact of the Ir

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 13 always been the possibility that Syria could be coaxed and pressured into adopting more pragmatic policies. Revived U.S. efforts to relaunch the Israeli-Palestinian

The text discusses the political realities of Lebanon following Syria's withdrawal and the influence of Hizbollah and other political factions. Despite Syrian troop withdrawal, control issues persist,

port they enjoyed, gave names to the rival groupings: the March14 anti-Syrian forces and the March 8 pro-Syrian forces. The March 14 demonstrations, which in the U.S. narrative became the Cedar Revolu

This text discusses the political dynamics in Lebanon following the Cedar Revolution, highlighting the division between the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition and the pro-Syrian March 8 forces. It outline

REALITIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 15 tion of the international consensus, obscures a deeper problem: realities on the ground have already destroyed much of the viability of the two-state solution. The

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust between Palestinians and Israel

tember 2007 Israeli bombing of what Israelis claim was a suspicious facility in Syria. But the issue of Israel’s nuclear weapons is perennially off the table. The United States, along with most other

This text discusses the complex dynamics of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Israel's alleged nuclear capabilities and Iran's nuclear program. It highlights the risks

"choose your own future and win your freedom."2 To make matters worse, in September 2006 the U.S. Congress passed the Iran Freedom Support Act, which imposed mandatory sanctions on entities that suppl

The text discusses Iran's unwavering commitment to its nuclear program, spurred by various factors, including U.S. sanctions, the Iraq war, and surging oil prices. Despite hints of military action fro

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 21 otherwise unwelcome consequences..... And another message should be equally clear: leaders who abandon the pursuit of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and

This text discusses the complexities and challenges in the New Middle East, particularly regarding nuclear ambitions of countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and the decline of the U.S. freedom agend

22 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST few, limited in scope, carried out only when allowed by incumbent regimes, and dropped quickly when governments objected. After September 11, President Bush openly repudiated th

This text discusses the shift in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East following the September 11 attacks. President Bush's declaration of aligning American values of freedom and security contrasted

The weakness of the secular opposition is not entirely of its own making. Arab authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes—many of which have been ruling their societies in the name of secular ideolo

In Arab societies, secular opposition has struggled against longstanding authoritarian regimes that repress liberal ideologies, while conservative social attitudes limit their political expression. A

Discrimination inevitably breeds discontent and resentment, and those certainly exist among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and, of course, in Lebanon. The real question, however, is whether this resentm

The text examines the roots of resentment among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and Lebanon, noting its implications for political activism. Discrimination and resentment have led to instances of violenc

None of this remarkable spate of diplomatic activity has so far removed the underlying tension between Sunni regimes and the government in Tehran. Fear of a nuclear Iran in the region remains quite hi

Despite a series of diplomatic initiatives aimed at alleviating tensions between Sunni governments and the Iranian regime, fears of a nuclear Iran persist in the region. Both parties seem committed to

policy in Iraq and of the Palestinian–Israeli peace process. The United States needs to recognize that terrorism is not the result of blind hatred of Western civilization, as the Bush administration i

This text argues that U.S. policies in the Middle East must shift to address underlying political issues to effectively curb terrorism and ensure oil flow. It outlines critical tasks for U.S. engageme

To be sure, engagement offers no guarantees of success. It is the Iranian government that ultimately must make a strategic decision to change its own policies. The best thing Washington can do is main

This text discusses the necessity for strategic dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, emphasizing the importance of Iran's willingness to modify its policies. It asserts that the U.S. should provide Ira

Israel and Palestine U.S. core interests in the region include peace between Israelis and Palestinians, which would have as a corollary peace between Israel and all Arab countries. The only solution

The pursuit of peace in the Israel-Palestine conflict hinges on the two-state solution, which aims to protect Israel's existence and Palestinian rights. Achieving this requires strong Palestinian lead